Politics and Trade Policy: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper we examine the empirical relevance of three prominent endogenous protection models. Is protection for sale, or do altruistic policy makers worry about political support? We find strong evidence that protection is indeed "for sale." The important new result is, however, that not only the existence of lobbies matters, but also the relative size of the sectoral pro and anti protection contributions. All variables of both the Influence Driven (Grossman and Helpman, 1994) and the Tariff Function (Findlay and Wellisz, 1982) models are significant at the one percent level. Novel is our application of a single, unified theoretical framework to take strict interpretations of the three theoretical models to the data. We thus extend the previous tests of the Influence Driven approach by comparing its performance to well specified alternatives. Using J tests to compare the power of the models directly, we find significant misspecification in the Political Support Function approach. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of correct specification of the Influence Driven model and find evidence of some misspecification in the Tariff Function model.Endogenous protection, lobbying, political economy of tariffs

Germany’s Continued Productivity Slump: An Industry Analysis

US productivity growth surged twice post 1995 and post 2000. In contrast Germany registered two successive productivity reductions during that same period of time. Previous analysis of the post-2000 decline has been limited, however, by the short time series of the available data. In this paper we extend the Ifo Industry Growth Accounting Database that provides detailed industry-level investment information up to 2004. While much attention has focused on the reduction in German labor hours, our post-2000 data shows that a fledgling recovery in German non-ICT investment was offset by a widespread collapse in German total factor productivity. Almost half of German industries (accounting for over 45 percent of German output) did not experience positive TFP growth post 2000. Industries that constitute over a quarter of Germany’s value-added exhibited negative labor productivity growth during the same period. The negative German productivity trend is thus continuing, which accelerates the country’s departure from the productivity frontier.Growth accounting, industry productivity analysis, information and communication technology

The Ifo Industry Growth Accounting Database

In this paper we present a new database that allows deep industry-level growth accounting from 1991–2003. The database allows for the first complete analysis of the German industry performance drivers based on the contributions of 12 asset types in 52 different industries. The industry sources of productivity and output growth are crucial to the understanding of the transformation of the German economy from manufacturing to information technology and service industries. The database enables researchers to develop an adequate picture of the sources of growth using standard growth accounting techniques. We formally document the new data series and its origins, with special focus on the capital stock and capital service data.growth accounting, industry productivity analysis

Signaling in deterministic and stochastic settings

We contrast a standard deterministic signaling game with one where the signal-generating mechanism is stochastic. With stochastic signals a unique equilibrium emerges that involves separation and has intuitive comparative-static properties as the degree of signaling depends on the prior type distribution. With deterministic signals both pooling and separating configurations occur. Laboratory data support the theory: In the stochastic variant, there is more signaling behavior than with deterministic signals, and less frequent types distort their signals relatively more. Moreover, the degree of congruence between equilibrium and subject behavior is greater in stochastic settings compared to deterministic treatments. --experiments,learning,noise,signaling,stochastic environments

Interaction Between Visual and Phonotactic Orientation During Flight in \u3ci\u3eMagicicada Cassini\u3c/i\u3e (Homoptera: Cicadidae)

Visual and phonotactic orientation often occur simultaneously in diurnal cicadas. and these animals generally have their largest sensory elaboration in eyes and hearing organs. Phonotactic orientation occurs principally during flight. Males and females of Magicicada cassini commonly perform low- altitude « 5 m) and short-distance « 15 m) flights in their natural habitat at flight speeds of 3 to 6 m/s. During flight, the long body axis is tilted 10° to Q , head upward. Wing beat frequencies of tethered animals at 24° to 26°C averaged 28.8 Hz. Body temperature in the field for flying individuals aver- aged 4.6°C above ambient. Compound eyes of females possess about 7% more facets than males, and the binocular field of view for both is especially expanded dorsa-frontally, frontally, and fronto-ventrally. The role of vision for phonoresponses, and in flight and landing behavior. was studied in nature by comparing controls with cicadas with eyes partly to completely covered with aluminum paint. Cicadas with their three ocelli covered behaved like controls and exhibited low-altitude and short-distance flights with landings on neighboring shrubs, as did cicadas with only both caudal halves or both dorsal halves of the compound eyes covered. Those with both compound eyes covered completely (with or without additionally covering the three ocelli) flew to higher altitudes and for longer distances. Higher and longer flight courses were also seen in cicadas (A) with only one compound eye covered. which in addition circled during walking and flight toward the side of unrestricted vision, (B) with both frontal or both ventral halves of their compound eyes covered. and (C) with either the binocular or monocular fields of the eyes covered. Thus, the paired fronta-antero-ventral regions of the compound eyes provide visual information for habitat-dependent low-altitude flights and landings. Females with intact compound eyes and ocelli responded to playbacks of just the frequency/intensity sweep at the end of the buzz in calling songs of a male by flying within 1.2 m above the ground and landing on a nylon screen- covered small bush directly above the loudspeaker from distances of 2 to 8 m. mostly from lower vegetation. Males that were blinded, or blinded and deafened, sang less and flew less than normal males. However. they performed all of those behaviors, and all also walked and fed. Periodical cicadas (Magicicada, Tibicininae) are known for synchronized adult emergence and noisy aggregations of millions of individuals of three intermingled species in each brood population (Alexander and Moore 1962). Broods are isolated geographically and chronologically, such that in some years no periodical cicada adults emerge, and most areas of the eastern United States have only one brood population appearing as adults at intervals of either 13 or 17 years. In all Magicicada species, daily flights affect spacing and aggregation of both sexes during feeding, chorusing, mating, and ovipositing. Flights are mediated by both acoustical and visual cues. Each species in these aggregations establishes mating leks. These aggregations continue to mix, every day and unpredictably, during the emergence period. Toward the end of the reproductive season, males die sooner than females, leading to little or no chorusing, and then females disperse progressively further from the lek sites. The cohesive effect of the acoustical cues of chorusing males on these cicada populations is obvious. Both sexes of all six species of periodical cicadas live and feed on shrubs and trees of different species, sizes, and shapes, and females lay eggs in their living twigs. Their niches overlap almost completely, the three species of 13­ year or 17-year cicadas being separated principally by diurnal acoustic behavior leading to aggregation sites that change every day and are seldom exclusive to a single Magicicada species. Adults frequently change location in these complex visual environments by short-distance and low-altitude flights. which we call bush-hopping. These flights are associated with sound communication and reproductive activities and are most commonly observed during bright sunlight and at ambient temperatures above 25°C with little wind (Alexander and Moore 1958,1962; Dunning et al. 1979). Otte (1990) and Toms (1992) discuss the common correlation between hearing and flying in orthop­teroid insects, interactions basically similar to those found in cicadas. The present paper describes the interaction of vision (compound eyes and ocelli) and phonoresponses of males and females of Magicicada cassini (Fisher) in walking, but especially in flight and landing behavior, within a natural habitat

Signaling in Deterministic and Stochastic Settings

We contrast a standard deterministic signaling game with one where the signal-generating mechanism is stochastic. With stochastic signals a unique equilibrium emerges that involves separation and has intuitive comparative-static properties as the degree of signaling depends on the prior type distribution. With deterministic signals both pooling and separating configurations occur. Laboratory data support the theory: In the stochastic variant, there is more signaling behavior than with deterministic signals, and less frequent types distort their signals relatively more. Moreover, the degree of congruence between equilibrium and subject behavior is greater in stochastic settings compared to deterministic treatments

Rotation of an immersed cylinder sliding near a thin elastic coating

It is known that an object translating parallel to a soft wall in a viscous fluid produces hydro- dynamic stresses that deform the wall, which, in turn, results in a lift force on the object. Recent experiments with cylinders sliding under gravity near a soft incline, which confirmed theoretical arguments for the lift force, also reported an unexplained steady-state rotation of the cylinders [Saintyves et al. PNAS 113(21), 2016]. Motivated by these observations, we show, in the lubrication limit, that an infinite cylinder that translates in a viscous fluid parallel to a soft wall at constant speed and separation distance must also rotate in order to remain free of torque. Using the Lorentz reciprocal theorem, we show analytically that for small deformations of the elastic layer, the angular velocity of the cylinder scales with the cube of the sliding speed. These predictions are confirmed numerically. We then apply the theory to the gravity-driven motion of a cylinder near a soft incline and find qualitative agreement with the experimental observations, namely that a softer elastic layer results in a greater angular speed of the cylinder.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure